How I used AI Tools & Google Trends to Determine that Amazon HQ2 Is Coming to Miami

Amazon has yet to announce where they are going to put their newest headquarters called HQ2 into Overtown, Miami. With some proprietary AI software I've been testing and using Google Trends I can say with a high degree of probability that Overtown Miami will be the announced city for the second headquarters. If you look at search volume and spikes you get these clues.

Here are a few examples that you can see:

 

Screen Shot 2018-02-14 at 1.37.24 AM

Notice the huge jump in late January for the neighborhood of Overtown that is just west of Downtown Miami and only miles from Jeff Bezos high school.

If you look at some of the other competitors and candidates bidding for HQ2 and their such volume jumps and AI metrics I've been monitoring have not yielded the same results:

Screen Shot 2018-02-14 at 1.51.23 AM

 

Montgomery County, Maryland was definitely in contention but most likely due to over regulation and Maryland being known as an anti-business friendly state has hurt it's chances of providing thousands of new jobs to Marylanders.

Screen Shot 2018-02-14 at 1.53.16 AM

Theres more data and articles that I've read through trying to work against my logic and the data but I can't find data to support another city. There are reasons I can think of that would make the area not so desirable such as Hurricanes and rising sea levels but every location has it's positives and negatives and Miami definitely has a lot of positives. Time will tell as I write this late at night on the 13th of February.

Screen Shot 2018-02-14 at 2.03.37 AM


2017 a Financial Overview from Bloomberg

Bloomberg just did a great interactive piece covering 2017. There are some key points that stuck out to me:

More money went into startups in 2017 than any other year in history. SoftBank certainly led the way with huge investments in already established startups and Theranos receiving a huge end of year investment. 2017's total was $141.3 Billion invested in startups. 2016 investments paired with 2015 investments. In January of 2016 when I sat in on meetings at Battery Ventures, Sequoia Capital, and Greylock Partners they all said that they were getting back to basics on VC investments. Take it FWIW.

Hong Kong has the highest real estate prices in the world and they continued to climb while their unemplyment continued to dip to only 3.0% where Japan has 2.8% unemployment followed by the US and Isreal at 4.1%, United Kingdom at 4.3% and Germany at it's lowest level since reunification. Apollo Golbal raised 24.6 billion dollars for the largest fund ever.

Student Loans have now exceeded the total size of U.S. High yield corporate market. This is a catch 20/20. Education costs continue to rise so there should be a rise in student loans which has continiously risen since 2005. This also equates to more students in school which is a positive thing IMO. More education typically = better society right?

Art market continues to reach new highs. Salvator Mundi sells for a record $450.3 million dollars at auction. Price was actually 400 Million combined with a 50 million dollar auction house fee. Off the top of my head this was sold to the Louve in Abu Dhabi. The total cost to build this museum was less than the cost of the one painting. The naming rights however are even more than the cost to build the museum. So what is art? Is it a name and recognition? The most expensive piece of art in the world is the Mona Lisa. The auction house did a fantastic job marketing this as the second Mona Lisa and when you have a piece on display for the next 100 years and people flock at $60.000 a ticket to go and see the second Mona Lisa the return on investment and name that the 2nd Louve has made for itself tends to make sense.

Reference:

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-year-in-money/


Those Cables Underneath the Ocean that provide Internet Are Improving

The myths and rumors you may hear about where there are cables underneath the ocean that provide internet service throughout the world are actually true. Cool story of the day is that Microsoft is improving it's efficiency: http://www.zdnet.com/article/microsofts-subsea-speed-monster-a-cable-16-million-times-faster-than-your-broadband/


Burning Man 2017 Story

Burning Man comes with a lot of amazing experiences and stories for a first time visitor. It's a place where you need to go and see for yourself.  The one story I'm roughly journaling out for my own memory is about my first experience to the Temple in 2017.

Temple is known as this deep spiritual place on the playa where people share their personal messages through letters, prayers, and there own artistic inspirations to showcase things that have a deep meaning to them. For example there were writings on the wall that said "I Love you Dad. Sorry I didn't call you more." The most striking thing that happened as I walked through was a girl reading a poster on the wall and as shes emotionally reading and looking at the photo somebody says to her "What is the story behind the poster you put up and are reading."

Her story is as follows:

This is our friend Joey (Name possibly incorrect) from Salt Lake City. He came with us every year to Burning Man and was a big part of our camp. He was always so joyful and kind dancing around. Last winter he was shoveling snow for his neighbors during a snow storm and a new neighbor in the area didn't know who he was so she called the police and it was two cops who showed up when he got frightened and defensive with his shovel and the rookie police officer puled out his gun and accidentally shot him in self defense not realizing it was a shovel. She said it was very sad and he was with them every year at burning man but this year he's still there in spirit. I then said wow. Thats truly amazing. So you just put up this poster to honor him?

She says oh no. Not at all I just happen to be here right now at the exact moment you were and saw this. I have absolutely no idea who put this up....

 

 


Failure is Critical

 

“If you already know it's going to work, it's not an experiment, and only through experimentation can you get real invention. The most important inventions come from trial and error with lots of failure, and the failure is critical, and it's also embarrassing.” – Jeff Bezos

Bezos may be talking about the Amazon Fire Phone that came out in September of 2014 and didn't sell at all (literally I think the total sold is less than 1,000), which from the outside, was considered an embarrassing failure for the company but true entrepreneurs take chances, learn, and adapt. If you look at the other chances he took then you may think he's a genius for the successes such as the creation of the ever so popular Amazon Echo, and dozens of innovations that made the  original company named Cadabra Inc. but was changed to Amazon in 1996 as the first major online bookseller and today one of the biggest companies of all time. 

Startups fail all the time. Obsess over your clients and fail fast according to Bezos.


Puma & Adidas Were Once One

Reading through this article on the downfall of Nike from Quartz:

Niked Shoe Empire

and it has this graph below that showcased to me something that I never knew and assume most people don't know. That the Dassler brothers from Germany had a shoe company and it consisted of Puma and Adidas. This former oligopoly started to diminish when Nike came out decades later and within only 5 years Reebok had become the biggest shoe company in the world. As with all cycles things change and Nike came back and still leads today despite a recent announcement to cut 2% of their workforce and the failure to come out with a blockbuster product in the last couple of years. Puma at one point in time had 30% of the market and today is closer to 5% while no company has ever had more than 50% of the entire market which Adidas once owned in the early 1970's.

 


FUD with Hurricane IRMA

Hurricanes put in the highest levels of fear, uncertainty, and doubt in people. The media exploits these fears and it is better to be safe than sorry. The problem IMO with Hurricanes are that you never know where in the path it's going to hit, how much damage its going to inflict, and how bad it will be when it gets there. Lets see what happens with Hurricane Irma & Jose.